The 2027 Medicare plan numbers, and what an average can’t tell you
CMS projects lower average Medicare Advantage premiums for 2027, a $700 drug deductible, and the end of a program that held standalone drug-plan premiums down. The national average is not a number any one plan charges.
On September 28, CMS published its projections for 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D premiums. The headline is a decline: the average Medicare Advantage premium is projected to fall from $14.37 a month to $12.00. It is a real number from a real agency, and it is worth reading for what it is — a national average of projections, weighted across every plan in the country. It is not the price of any plan you can actually enroll in.
| Average Medicare Advantage premium | $14.37 a month in 2026, projected at $12.00 for 2027 — a 16.5% decline. |
|---|---|
| Average Part D premium inside Advantage plans | $11.32 in 2026, projected at about $7 — down 38%. |
| Average standalone Part D premium | $35.09 in 2026, projected at about $36 — up less than a dollar. |
| Part D deductible | Up to $700 in 2027, from $615. That is the most a plan may charge, not what every plan does. |
| Part D out-of-pocket cap | $2,400 in 2027, from $2,100. It applies to standalone plans and Advantage plans with drug coverage alike. |
| National base beneficiary premium | $41.33, up $2.34 (6%). A formula input, not a bill — more on it below. |
| Projected Advantage enrollment | About 34 million people, roughly 47% of everyone with Medicare — essentially flat. |
| Open enrollment | 15 October – 7 December. Coverage for 2027 begins 1 January. |
What an average is, and isn’t
The Advantage and Part D premium figures are projections built from the bids plans submitted, averaged with each plan weighted by the enrollment it expects. That is a sound way to describe the market as a whole. It does not say what happens to a specific plan, and it can’t. An average can fall while a particular plan’s premium rises; that is arithmetic, not something CMS claimed. What the number tells you is which way the total moved.
A falling national average and a rising price for your plan can both be true at once. The average only tells you which way the total moved.
The premium is also one cost among several. Copays, deductibles, which doctors are in the network and which drugs sit on which tier all vary plan by plan, and none of them is in a premium average. Reading the $12.00 as “Advantage costs less next year” reads more into it than it contains.
Also on The Second Half Guide Long-term care: the numbers, before the sales pitch What long-term care actually costs in 2026, who pays for it, and what insurance does and does not do. One of the largest risks in retirement. Read it →The part that is the same for everyone
The Part D numbers are different in kind, because they are set by rule rather than by averaging. The out-of-pocket cap rises to $2,400 and the standard deductible to as much as $700, both finalized in CMS’s April rate announcement. Once your covered drug costs reach the cap, your cost for the rest of that calendar year is zero. The deductible counts toward the cap; it does not sit on top of it. We cover how the cap works — and what it doesn’t cover — in The $2,100 Medicare drug cap.
The program that ended
On July 28, CMS announced that the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration will end after 2026. As CMS described it, the program had given standalone drug plans a $10 monthly premium reduction and limited how much any single plan’s premium could rise in a year to $50. Those protections are gone for 2027.
CMS still projects the average standalone premium to rise by under a dollar. That is a statement about the average. Whether a particular standalone plan’s premium moves by more, now that the per-plan limit no longer applies, is something the plan’s own 2027 figures will answer and the national average will not.
What the $41.33 actually does
The national base beneficiary premium is not what anyone pays. It is the number the Part D formulas are built on — and the one that sets the late-enrollment penalty. If you go 63 days or more without Part D or other creditable drug coverage after your initial enrollment period ends, the penalty is 1% of the base premium for each full month you went without, rounded to the nearest ten cents, added to your premium for as long as you have Part D.
| 20 uncovered months, 2026 | 20 × 1% × $38.99 = $7.80 a month |
|---|---|
| 20 uncovered months, 2027 | 20 × 1% × $41.33 = $8.30 a month |
| How long it lasts | Generally for as long as you have Part D. The dollar amount is recalculated each year from the new base premium. |
What you can’t know yet
Your plan’s own premium, drug list and network for 2027 are the things no national figure can supply. CMS has said 2027 plan information would be on Medicare.gov’s Plan Finder by October 1, with the 2027 Star Ratings on or around October 8. If your current plan is leaving your area, the notice was due by October 2 — see More Medicare Advantage plans are disappearing for 2027. Your plan’s Annual Notice of Change, mailed by the end of September, lists next year’s changes to your own coverage; The Medicare letter arriving in September covers how to read it.
The Part B premium for 2027 has not been announced either. The Medicare Trustees’ 2026 report projected $209.50 a month, against $202.90 in 2026; CMS’s official figure normally arrives in the fall. The projection is a forecast and the announcement can differ from it.
Where each number lives
- Your plan’s 2027 premium, deductible and copays: the Annual Notice of Change your plan mailed, and the Plan Finder on Medicare.gov. Not the national averages.
- Whether your plan continues: the non-renewal letter due by 2 October, if your plan is leaving.
- The $2,400 cap and $700 deductible: set by CMS and the same rule for every Part D plan.
- The national averages above: CMS’s projections — useful context for the market, not a quote for any plan.
- Open enrollment: 15 October through 7 December, with changes effective 1 January. What the window is actually for.
The averages will be quoted a great deal over the next few weeks. They are accurate descriptions of the whole country and weak predictions of your plan, and the figure that matters for you is the one printed on your own plan’s page.
This is general information, not personal insurance, financial or legal advice. We report the rules, the numbers and the deadlines as clearly as we can, but plan details, coverage decisions and premium costs depend on your specific plan. Treat this as a good place to find the right questions, not a substitute for your plan’s own materials or a licensed adviser.
Where these facts come from
Checked on 1 October 2026 against the sources listed below. Dollar limits and program rules change — if you're reading this well after that date, verify the numbers at the links below.
- CMS — Medicare Advantage and Medicare Prescription Drug Programs Expected to Remain Stable in 2027 — https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/medicare-advantage-medicare-prescription-drug-programs-expected-remain-stable-2027
- CMS — Medicare Part D 2027 National Average Monthly Bid Amount Information — https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/medicare-part-d-2027-national-average-monthly-bid-amount-information
- CMS — 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D Rate Announcement (fact sheet) — https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2027-medicare-advantage-part-d-rate-announcement
- AJMC — CMS Projects 16.5% Drop in 2027 Medicare Advantage Premiums — https://www.ajmc.com/view/cms-projects-16-5-drop-in-2027-medicare-advantage-premiums
- Becker’s Payer Issues — CMS projects lower Medicare Advantage premiums, flat enrollment for 2027 — https://www.beckerspayer.com/payer/medicare-advantage/cms-projects-lower-medicare-advantage-premiums-flat-enrollment-for-2027/
- AMCP — CMS Announces National Average Monthly Bid Amount and Conclusion of the Part D Premium Stabilization Demonstration — https://www.amcp.org/regulatory-newsbreak/regulatory-newsbreak-cms-announces-national-average-monthly-bid-amount-and-conclusion-part-d-premium
- Medicare Interactive — The Part D late enrollment penalty — https://www.medicareinteractive.org/wp-content/uploads/Part-D-LEP.pdf
Edward Silva
Edward spent more than forty years as a computer professional — long enough to pick up one useful occupational habit: when somebody hands you a summary, go and read the actual documentation. He started The Second Half Guide after noticing that most writing aimed at people his age was either talking down to him or quietly selling him something, and that the plain facts — the dates, the thresholds, the dollar figures — were somehow the hardest part to find.
He's married, with two grown sons, both married themselves. He is not a financial adviser, an attorney or an insurance agent, and this site doesn't tell you what to do with your money. It tells you what the rules actually say, and links to where he checked.